Following the coverage by Action Network Staff, who delved into this topic,
The Milwaukee Bucks continue to dominate the NBA with their stellar record of 43-14, ranking fifth in offensive efficiency and leading in defensive efficiency with a point differential of +9.8. All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo is not only a candidate for the NBA MVP but also presents a valuable option to bet on the Bucks for the NBA championship, with odds at +1000. The Bucks have not only excelled on the court but have also been exceptionally profitable against the spread (ATS) at the All-Star break, boasting a 63.0% ATS record, making them the most profitable team in the NBA in that regard. A $100 bettor would have earned $1,209 wagering on the Bucks in each game this season. Despite their success, historical data suggests a different outcome post-All-Star break.
Analyzing data from the past five seasons, the correlation coefficient shows no relationship between a team’s pre-All-Star ATS record and its post-All-Star ATS record, indicating that teams like the Bucks might not sustain their high ATS performance. Teams with a 60% or greater ATS record before the All-Star break have historically seen a significant drop in their performance after the break. Conversely, teams that struggled before the break tend to perform better ATS in the second half of the season due to adjustments made by oddsmakers. This regression applies to both the best and worst ATS teams, emphasizing that a team’s ATS record should not be considered predictive for the remainder of the season.
Image Attribution: Unknown
Image Attribution: Unknown