NFL Week 12 Betting Preview: Eagles vs. Cowboys – Odds, Predictions & EV Model Breakdown
The NFC East heats up in Week 12 as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Dallas for a primetime showdown against the Cowboys, a matchup packed with playoff implications, divisional drama, and high-impact skill-player props. With bettors searching for angles across NFL odds, player props, same-game parlays, and advanced projections, our proprietary EV (Expected Value) model highlights the most efficient opportunities for this nationally televised spotlight game.
Below is the complete EV results table for this matchup—designed to reveal which props are potentially undervalued or overvalued based on historical performance, pricing gaps, and matchup efficiency.
Expected Value (EV) Model – Eagles vs. Cowboys Player Props
How to read this:
- EV% estimates long-term expected profitability vs. the listed odds.
- Edge compares market probability to our model’s probability.
Note: This is not betting advice—simply a data-driven look at possible market inefficiencies for Week 12.
Full EV Model Table – NFL Week 12 Predictions Eagles Cowboys
EAGLES at COWBOYS
| Player | Market | Line / Prop | Odds | Market Prob | Model Prob | EV% | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Passing Yards | Over 268.5 | -115 | 53.5% | 59.1% | +8.8% | +5.6% |
| Dak Prescott | Passing TDs | Over 1.5 | -150 | 60.0% | 63.8% | +6.3% | +3.8% |
| Dak Prescott | Rushing Yards | Under 14.5 | -120 | 54.5% | 57.2% | +5.0% | +2.7% |
| CeeDee Lamb | Receiving Yards | Over 89.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 58.9% | +12.4% | +6.5% |
| CeeDee Lamb | Receptions | Over 7.5 | +105 | 48.2% | 51.9% | +7.7% | +3.7% |
| Jake Ferguson | Receiving Yards | Over 41.5 | -115 | 53.5% | 55.6% | +3.9% | +2.1% |
| Javonte Williams | Rushing Yards | Under 62.5 | -120 | 54.5% | 58.1% | +7.9% | +3.6% |
| Javonte Williams | Rushing + Receiving | Under 91.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 56.2% | +7.3% | +3.8% |
| Jalen Hurts | Passing Yards | Under 245.5 | -120 | 54.5% | 58.0% | +6.4% | +3.5% |
| Jalen Hurts | Rushing Yards | Over 39.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 54.8% | +4.6% | +2.4% |
| Jalen Hurts | Passing TDs | Over 1.5 | +120 | 45.4% | 47.9% | +5.5% | +2.5% |
| A.J. Brown | Receiving Yards | Over 82.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 55.1% | +5.1% | +2.7% |
| A.J. Brown | Receptions | Under 6.5 | -105 | 51.2% | 55.4% | +8.2% | +4.2% |
| DeVonta Smith | Receiving Yards | Under 64.5 | -115 | 53.5% | 57.7% | +9.8% | +4.2% |
| Saquon Barkley | Rushing Yards | Over 74.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 54.9% | +4.8% | +2.5% |
| Saquon Barkley | Rushing Attempts | Under 15.5 | -115 | 53.5% | 55.3% | +3.5% | +1.8% |
Key Takeaways From the Eagles vs Cowboys EV Model – Week 12
1. Highest Positive EV Props
- CeeDee Lamb — Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (+12.4% EV)
Lamb is the clear WR1 target for Dallas and presents the largest market edge versus Eagles’ secondary. - DeVonta Smith — Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (+9.8% EV)
Smith’s target share is volatile, and Dallas corners limit WR2 production in key downs. - Dak Prescott — Over 268.5 Passing Yards (+8.8% EV)
The over aligns with Dallas’ pass-heavy game script against a strong Eagles run defense. - Javonte Williams — Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (+7.9% EV)
Cowboys’ RB usage is split and Eagles’ front seven can contain the run; the under has solid value.
2. Quarterback Insights
- Dak Prescott shows strong +EV in passing yards and passing TDs, reinforcing his role in a high-volume passing game.
- Jalen Hurts projects more value on under passing yards and over rushing yards, reflecting Eagles’ balanced offense and Dallas’ defensive strengths in the secondary.
3. Running Back & Receiving Angles
- Javonte Williams’ under is supported by both split backfield usage and Eagles’ effective rush defense.
- Smith’s under and Lamb’s over highlight the correlation between WR1/WR2 target distribution and matchup efficiency.
- Saquon Barkley offers moderate +EV on rushing yardage, but targets and usage should be monitored closer to kickoff for any injury or game-script adjustments.
4. Parlay-Friendly Opportunities
- Lamb over + Prescott over = natural correlation for same-game parlays.
- Williams under + Smith under = complementary legs for risk-managed SGPs.
- Using the top 4 EV props, bettors can construct SGPs with strong statistical and matchup backing while minimizing negative EV exposure.
These represent the largest gaps between market expectation and model probability.
NFL Week 12 Sharp Betting Angles Eagles Cowboys:
- Dallas passing game projects above market expectations
- Eagles secondary remains exploitable → large Lamb/Ferguson edges
- Dallas RB usage likely split → Javonte Williams unders show value
- Eagles offense more run-leaning → Hurts unders show efficiency
Potential Same-Game Parlay (SGP) – Eagles vs. Cowboys (Week 12)
High-EV, model-aligned selections based on value signals—not predictions—these props rank highest in efficiency:
Leg 1: CeeDee Lamb — Over 89.5 Receiving Yards
- Model Edge: +12.4% (highest on the board)
- Why: Eagles secondary continues to allow explosive WR1 production; Cowboys pass rate spikes in competitive games.
Leg 2: Dak Prescott — Over 268.5 Passing Yards
- Model Edge: +8.8%
- Why: Correlated with Lamb over; Dallas expected to lean pass-heavy with a top-5 neutral-situation pass rate.
Leg 3: Javonte Williams — Under 62.5 Rushing Yards
- Model Edge: +7.9%
- Why: Cowboys use a split backfield; Eagles’ run defense still top-10 by EPA/allowed; positive game script favors passing.
Leg 4: DeVonta Smith — Under 64.5 Receiving Yards
- Model Edge: +9.8%
- Why: Smith’s target volatility is extreme in Hurts’ current passing structure; Dallas corners have allowed fewer WR2 explosives.
These align with both matchup tendencies and model efficiency.
Final Thoughts – Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Insights for Week 12
This divisional rivalry is one of the marquee games on the NFL Week 12 odds board, shaping NFC playoff paths and delivering a deep menu of player prop markets for fans, bettors, and modelers alike. The EV model doesn’t guarantee outcomes, but it does highlight where the market may be mispriced heading into Sunday. As always, use this data responsibly and enjoy one of the weekend’s biggest matchups.
This BetHouse betting article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice from BetHouse.com.
