American football is one of the most popular sports to bet on, with millions of fans placing wagers on NFL and college games each season. Whether you’re new to sports betting or a seasoned pro, understanding the different types of football bets and the strategies to maximize your winning potential is crucial. This guide will take you through everything you need to know to bet on American football, from basic bet types to advanced betting strategies.
Understanding the Basics: Types of Football Bets
Before diving into advanced strategies, it’s essential to understand the basic types of bets you can place on football games.
Moneyline Bets: The simplest form of football betting, a moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win the game outright. The odds are adjusted based on each team’s perceived likelihood of winning. For example, if the New England Patriots are heavily favored to win against the Miami Dolphins, a moneyline bet on the Patriots would pay out less than a bet on the Dolphins.
Point Spread Bets: Point spread betting is the most popular way to bet on football. In a point spread bet, the oddsmakers assign a handicap to the favored team, and the bettor wagers on whether the favored team will win by more than the spread (cover the spread) or if the underdog will lose by less than the spread or win outright. For example, if the Dallas Cowboys are favored by 7 points against the New York Giants, a bet on the Cowboys would only win if they win by more than 7 points.
Over/Under (Totals) Bets: In an over/under bet, the bettor wagers on whether the total points scored by both teams combined will be over or under a certain number set by the oddsmakers. For example, if the over/under for a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears is set at 45.5, a bet on the “over” would win if the total points scored is 46 or more, while a bet on the “under” would win if the total points scored is 45 or fewer.
Prop Bets: Proposition bets, or prop bets, are wagers on specific events within a game that don’t necessarily affect the final outcome. Examples include betting on which team will score first, whether a certain player will score a touchdown, or how many yards a quarterback will throw. Prop bets can be a fun way to get involved in the action and can offer value when you have a strong opinion on a particular aspect of the game.
Parlays: A parlay bet combines two or more bets into one wager. All the individual bets, or “legs,” must win for the parlay to pay out. While parlays offer the potential for larger payouts, they are also riskier because losing one leg means losing the entire bet. For example, you could combine a point spread bet on the Kansas City Chiefs with a moneyline bet on the Los Angeles Rams and an over/under bet on another game.
Teasers: A teaser bet is similar to a parlay, but with the added advantage of being able to adjust the point spreads in your favor. In exchange for moving the spreads, the payout is typically lower than a standard parlay. Teasers are popular in football betting because they allow you to reduce the risk of your bets by giving you extra points on the spread.
Futures Bets: Futures bets are wagers on events that will happen later in the season, such as which team will win the Super Bowl or which player will win the MVP award. Futures bets offer long-term betting opportunities and can be placed well before the season begins or at any time during the season.
Advanced Football Betting Strategies
For those who want to take their football betting to the next level, understanding and implementing advanced strategies is key to long-term success.
Line Shopping: One of the most important strategies in football betting is line shopping, which involves comparing the odds and point spreads offered by different sportsbooks to find the best value. Since different sportsbooks may have slightly different lines, getting even half a point more favorable on a point spread can make a significant difference in the long run.
Analyzing Key Statistics: Advanced bettors focus on key statistics beyond just win-loss records. Analyzing metrics such as yards per play, third-down conversion rates, red zone efficiency, and turnover differential can provide valuable insights into a team’s true performance level. Bettors should also pay attention to specific matchups, such as how well a team’s defense matches up against their opponent’s offense.
Betting Against the Public: Often referred to as “fading the public,” this strategy involves betting against the majority of the public money. The idea is that the betting public tends to overvalue popular teams and overreact to recent performances, leading to inflated lines. By going against the public, you can find value in lines that have been skewed by public perception.
Injury Reports and Weather Conditions: Advanced bettors pay close attention to injury reports and weather forecasts before placing their bets. Injuries to key players, especially quarterbacks, can have a significant impact on the outcome of a game. Similarly, weather conditions such as rain, snow, or high winds can affect the scoring and should be factored into your betting decisions.
Bankroll Management: Successful betting isn’t just about picking winners; it’s also about managing your bankroll effectively. This means setting a budget for how much you’re willing to bet and sticking to it, regardless of how confident you feel about a particular game. A common rule of thumb is to bet no more than 1-2% of your bankroll on a single bet, which helps protect you from significant losses.
Using Advanced Betting Models: Some advanced bettors use statistical models and algorithms to predict the outcome of games. These models take into account a wide range of factors, including team performance, player statistics, and historical trends. While building a model requires a deep understanding of statistics and access to data, it can provide a significant edge in identifying profitable betting opportunities.
American Football Betting Tips for Beginner Bettors
If you’re new to betting on American football, here are some tips to get you started on the right foot:
Start with the Basics: Stick to basic bets like moneyline and point spread wagers until you get more comfortable with the betting process. These bets are straightforward and easier to understand than more complex options like parlays and teasers.
Bet on What You Know: Focus on betting on teams and games you are familiar with. The more you know about the teams and players, the better equipped you’ll be to make informed betting decisions.
Keep Track of Your Bets: Maintain a record of all your bets, including the amount wagered, the type of bet, and the outcome. This will help you analyze your betting patterns and identify areas where you can improve.
Don’t Chase Losses: It’s important to stay disciplined and not chase your losses by placing larger bets in an attempt to recover. Stick to your bankroll management plan and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Learn from Your Mistakes: Every bettor makes mistakes, especially when they are starting out. Use these experiences as learning opportunities to improve your betting strategy.
The Final Whistle
Betting on American football can be an exciting and potentially profitable endeavor, but it requires a solid understanding of the various bet types and strategies. By starting with the basics and gradually incorporating more advanced techniques, you can enhance your betting skills and increase your chances of success. Whether you’re placing a simple moneyline bet or diving into complex teasers and prop bets, always remember to bet responsibly and manage your bankroll carefully.