Thursday Night Football kicks off NFL Week 3 tonight as the Atlanta Falcons travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers.
The Falcons enter the game 0-2 after losses to the Panthers and Bears, while the Packers are 1-1 following a disappointing 20-17 loss to the New York Jets last Sunday.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 24, with the game streaming on Prime Video.
Green Bay opened as a significant favorite and remains favored by between 5 and 6.5 points depending on the sportsbook. The total has moved into the 43.5-to-44.5 range.
The biggest storyline for Atlanta is the return of Michael Penix Jr. as the starting quarterback. Penix missed the first two games of the season, with Cooper Rush starting both contests. Green Bay, meanwhile, will be without wide receiver Jayden Reed, who has been ruled out with a neck injury.
Falcons vs. Packers Betting Odds
Thursday, September 24, 2026 — 8:15 p.m. ET
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Current market prices vary by sportsbook, but the Thursday morning market is approximately:
- Spread: Falcons +5 to +6.5 / Packers -5 to -6.5
- Moneyline: Falcons approximately +200 to +235 / Packers approximately -250 to -290
- Over/Under: 43.5 to 44.5 points
- Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
- TV/Streaming: Prime Video
One current market has Green Bay -4.5 with a total of 43.5, while other books have the Packers as high as -6.5. That makes the spread particularly important to compare before kickoff.
Covers currently lists Green Bay -6.5 and a 44.5-point total, while Action Network has the Packers -5 with a 43.5 total.
Falcons vs. Packers Injury Report
Atlanta will have Michael Penix Jr. back under center after he missed the opening two games. Penix practiced fully Tuesday and has officially been named the starter.
The Falcons will be without defensive end Samson Ebukam, while cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. is questionable. Atlanta also placed cornerback A.J. Terrell on injured reserve earlier this week.
Green Bay has several significant injuries. Jayden Reed is ruled out with a neck injury, while guard Aaron Banks and tackle Zach Bako-Bewele are also out. Defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell are questionable. Anthony Belton is expected to play after being upgraded to full participation.
Reed’s absence is particularly important for Green Bay’s receiving props because it should increase opportunities for players such as Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft.
Falcons vs. Packers Game Analysis
Atlanta’s biggest change from the first two weeks is at quarterback.
Cooper Rush threw four interceptions during his two starts and the Falcons have yet to reach the red zone this season. Penix brings a much different skill set and was the team’s starting quarterback for much of the 2025 season.
In nine starts last season, Penix threw for 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He also averaged 53.7 receiving yards per game from Bijan Robinson in those starts, according to current betting analysis.
That makes Robinson’s receiving market particularly interesting tonight.
Green Bay has had its own offensive problems. The Packers are completing only 52.1% of their passes through two games and managed just 199 total yards against the Jets last week. Jordan Love threw for only 145 yards in that game after throwing for 387 yards in Week 1.
The Packers are also dealing with injuries along the offensive line and will be without Reed.
Despite those problems, Green Bay remains a substantial home favorite.
The matchup could ultimately come down to which offense is capable of producing enough explosive plays. Atlanta’s return to Penix gives the Falcons more upside through the air, while Green Bay will look for Love to bounce back from last week’s performance.
Falcons Player Props
Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Prop: 40+ receiving yards
Bijan Robinson is one of the most interesting player-prop options on the Atlanta side.
He opened the season with eight receptions for 90 yards and averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix’s nine starts last season. He reached at least 40 receiving yards in five of those nine games.
Green Bay has been strong against the run, making Robinson’s receiving involvement particularly important.
Short passes to Robinson could become an extension of Atlanta’s running game and help Penix settle into his first start of the season.
Prop lean: Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards
Prop: Around 72.5 rushing yards
Robinson remains the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense and should see substantial volume.
The Packers have allowed relatively little rushing production early in the season, so the receiving game may be the cleaner path to Robinson’s production tonight.
Still, his expected workload makes his rushing market one of the most important Atlanta props.
Prop lean: Bijan Robinson Over 72.5 rushing yards
Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards
Prop: Around 215.5 passing yards
Penix makes his 2026 season debut after missing the first two games.
The biggest question is how aggressively Atlanta allows him to throw after returning from his knee injury. The matchup against Green Bay’s defense could require Penix to throw more than expected if the Packers establish an early lead.
Prop lean: Michael Penix Jr. Over 215.5 passing yards
Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Prop: Over 35.5 receiving yards
Kyle Pitts is another player whose outlook improves with Penix back at quarterback.
VSiN has highlighted Pitts’ receiving market, noting that Pitts averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game in Penix’s nine starts last season and reached 50 yards in four of those games.
Green Bay allowed 58 receiving yards to opposing tight ends in Week 1, adding another reason to watch this market.
Prop lean: Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 receiving yards
Kyle Pitts 50+ Receiving Yards
Alternate prop: 50+ receiving yards, approximately +212
For bettors looking for a higher-payout alternative, Pitts’ 50+ receiving-yard market is available at substantially longer odds than his standard receiving prop.
His history with Penix makes the alternate line worth considering as a more aggressive prop rather than a primary selection.
Drake London Receiving Yards
Prop: Around 57.5 receiving yards
London remains one of Atlanta’s most talented outside receivers and should benefit from having Penix back.
The biggest variable is target distribution between London, Pitts and Robinson. Penix’s familiarity with all three makes the Falcons passing attack considerably more interesting than it was during the first two weeks.
Prop lean: Drake London Over 57.5 receiving yards
Packers Player Props
Jordan Love Passing Yards
Prop: Around 234.5 passing yards
Love’s passing-yardage market has dropped substantially from the 256.5-yard range he carried into the previous game.
He threw for 387 yards in Week 1 but only 145 against the Jets in Week 2.
The Falcons have allowed more than 500 receiving yards through their first two games, which gives Love an opportunity to rebound.
Prop lean: Jordan Love Over 234.5 passing yards
Jordan Love Passing Touchdowns
Prop: Over/Under 1.5
Love’s passing touchdown market is another way to bet on a potential Green Bay offensive bounce-back.
The Packers have several capable red-zone weapons, although Reed’s absence removes one of their most established options.
Prop lean: Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Christian Watson Receiving Yards
Prop: Around 48.5 receiving yards
Watson has already caught three touchdown passes through two games, giving him one of the strongest touchdown profiles on the Green Bay roster.
With Reed ruled out, Watson could see additional targets.
Athlon specifically highlights Watson among the key player-prop options for Thursday night.
Prop lean: Christian Watson Over 48.5 receiving yards
Matthew Golden Receiving Yards
Prop: 55+ receiving yards
Matthew Golden recorded 58 receiving yards against the Jets despite Green Bay’s overall offensive struggles.
BettingPros is highlighting Golden’s 55+ receiving-yard market, noting that Atlanta has allowed more than 500 receiving yards through two games.
With Reed unavailable, Golden has an opportunity to remain heavily involved.
Prop lean: Matthew Golden 55+ receiving yards
Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards
Prop: Around 40.5 receiving yards
Tucker Kraft is another important part of the Green Bay passing attack.
Action Network has identified Kraft among its key Falcons-Packers prop markets for Thursday night.
Atlanta’s defense has allowed production through the air, making Kraft an interesting secondary receiving prop.
Prop lean: Tucker Kraft Over 40.5 receiving yards
Kaleb Johnson Rushing Yards
Prop: Around 35.5 rushing yards
Kaleb Johnson is another Packers running-back market worth monitoring.
Action Network includes Johnson among its featured Thursday night prop markets.
Green Bay’s offensive line injuries make the rushing matchup less straightforward, but a lead late in the game could produce additional rushing opportunities.
Prop lean: Kaleb Johnson Over 35.5 rushing yards
Best Falcons vs. Packers TNF Player Props
Based on the Thursday morning market and current injury situation, these are some of the most interesting player-prop markets:
- Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
- Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 receiving yards
- Michael Penix Jr. Over 215.5 passing yards
- Drake London Over 57.5 receiving yards
- Jordan Love Over 234.5 passing yards
- Christian Watson Over 48.5 receiving yards
- Matthew Golden 55+ receiving yards
- Tucker Kraft Over 40.5 receiving yards
- Kyler Johnson Over 35.5 rushing yards
The Bijan Robinson receiving market stands out because Green Bay has been difficult to run against and Robinson has historically been heavily involved as a receiver with Penix at quarterback.
Kyle Pitts is another particularly interesting matchup because his receiving production has been higher when Penix has been under center.
Falcons vs. Packers Anytime Touchdown Bets
The touchdown market features several players worth considering.
Bijan Robinson is one of the primary Atlanta touchdown options, while Christian Watson has already scored three touchdowns through two games.
Other players to monitor include:
- Bijan Robinson
- Christian Watson
- Kyle Pitts
- Drake London
- Tucker Kraft
- Matthew Golden
- Michael Penix Jr.
- Jordan Love
Christian Watson’s three touchdowns through two games make him particularly notable despite Green Bay’s inconsistent passing production.
Thursday Night Football Parlay Ideas
Falcons Player Prop Parlay
A Falcons-focused combination could include:
- Falcons +6.5
- Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
- Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 receiving yards
- Michael Penix Jr. Over 215.5 passing yards
This combination is built around Atlanta’s offense looking substantially different with Penix back at quarterback.
Packers Player Prop Parlay
A Green Bay-focused combination could include:
- Packers -5
- Jordan Love Over 234.5 passing yards
- Christian Watson Over 48.5 receiving yards
- Matthew Golden 55+ receiving yards
This assumes Love rebounds from his 145-yard performance against the Jets.
Touchdown Parlay
A more aggressive touchdown combination could include:
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
- Christian Watson anytime touchdown
- Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown
Same-Game Parlay Idea
A balanced same-game combination could include:
- Packers -5
- Under 44.5
- Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
- Christian Watson anytime touchdown
The idea is that Green Bay wins while Atlanta keeps Robinson heavily involved through the passing game.
Thursday Night Football Betting Strategy
The spread is the first number to watch.
The Packers are listed anywhere from approximately -5 to -6.5 Thursday morning depending on the sportsbook. That difference can materially change the value of a spread wager.
The total has also moved into the low-to-mid 40s. Covers currently lists 44.5, while Action Network has 43.5.
There are reasons to consider both sides of the total.
Atlanta’s offense should improve with Penix replacing Rush, but the Falcons have not reached the red zone through their first two games. Green Bay’s offense has also struggled badly in the passing game, particularly last week.
The Packers’ offensive-line injuries and Reed’s absence are important considerations as well. Green Bay has ruled out Reed, Banks and Bako-Bewele, while Hargrave remains questionable.
For player props, Bijan Robinson’s receiving production may be one of the cleaner Atlanta angles because Green Bay has been effective against the run. Short receptions can provide Robinson with production even if the Falcons struggle to run between the tackles.
On the Green Bay side, Jordan Love’s passing-yardage market is worth watching after his dramatic drop from 387 yards in Week 1 to 145 yards in Week 2.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Atlanta’s offense should be more competitive with Penix back in the lineup, and that could make the Falcons a much more difficult opponent than the 0-2 record suggests.
Green Bay, however, has home-field advantage and should be highly motivated to rebound after last week’s disappointing loss to the Jets.
The Packers’ defense has played well enough to keep Atlanta’s offense under pressure, while Love has a favorable opportunity to bounce back against an Atlanta defense that has allowed more than 500 receiving yards through two games.
The biggest question is whether Green Bay can overcome its offensive-line injuries and the loss of Reed.
Prediction: Packers 24, Falcons 20
Spread lean: Falcons +6.5
Total lean: Under 44.5
Top player-prop lean: Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
Receiving prop lean: Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 receiving yards
Quarterback prop lean: Jordan Love Over 234.5 passing yards
Touchdown prop lean: Christian Watson anytime touchdown
Falcons vs. Packers Odds and Props
The betting market can move substantially between Thursday morning and kickoff, particularly when final injury information is confirmed.
The most important late news to monitor is the status of Green Bay defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and Anthony Campbell. Jayden Reed, Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele have already been ruled out.
Atlanta’s quarterback situation is settled: Michael Penix Jr. will start.
The spread is currently ranging from approximately Packers -5 to -6.5, while the total is in the 43.5-to-44.5 range.
Player prop prices can also move before kickoff as sportsbooks adjust to injury news and betting activity.
The odds and prop lines in this article are Thursday-morning market snapshots and may not be the same numbers available at kickoff.
Remember: Sports betting involves risk. Odds and lines change, and there is no guarantee of winning.
Related:
- How to Bet on American Football
- Top 10 Sports Betting Strategies for Beginners
- Sports Betting Glossary, Tips and Strategies for Beginners
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