The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is ready to blast off Monday night from Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, offering fans a star-studded slugfest featuring a mix of rising stars and fan favorites. ESPN will air the event at 8:00PM EST, and betting action is already heating up.
Let’s break down the format, updated odds, and top picks to watch for one of baseball’s most thrilling showcases.
How to Watch the Home Run Derby
- 📅 Date: Monday, July 14, 2025
- ⏰ Time: 8:00 PM EST
- 📍 Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
- 📺 Network: ESPN / ESPN2
Latest Betting Odds (via BetMGM)
| Player | Team | Odds | $10 Bet Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | Mariners | +275 | $27.50 |
| Oneil Cruz | Pirates | +350 | $35 |
| James Wood | Nationals | +400 | $40 |
| Matt Olson | Braves | +800 | $80 |
| Brent Rooker | Athletics | +850 | $85 |
| Byron Buxton | Twins | +900 | $90 |
| Junior Caminero | Rays | +1000 | $100 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Yankees | +1400 | $140 |
Derby Format
- First Round: 3 minutes or 40 pitches per hitter. Bonus round continues until 3 non-HRs. A 425+ foot homer earns an extra out.
- Semifinals & Finals: 2 minutes or 27 pitches, no carryover. Tiebreakers use longest home run or a 60-second swing-off.
- Top 4 home run totals in Round 1 move to semifinals.
Expert Picks & Predictions
🏆 Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Pick: James Wood (+400)
- Why: Wood has massive power and experience at Truist Park. While Raleigh is favored, Dalzell prefers Wood’s value and consistency.
- Sleeper: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1400) – Not expected to win, but worth a small sprinkle for upside.
🏡 Drew Dinsick (@Whale_Capper)
- Pick: Matt Olson (+800)
- Why: A Georgia native competing at home with prior Derby experience. Olson may benefit from the crowd’s energy.
🧢 Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
- Pick: James Wood
- Why: With 24 homers and elite Statcast metrics, Froton believes the Nationals’ rising star could take it all.
Top Contenders Breakdown
1. Cal Raleigh (+275) – Mariners
- 2025 HRs: 38 (MLB leader)
- Strengths: Fly-ball machine, huge power, and consistent all season.
- Weakness: No catcher has ever won a Derby, and fatigue is a concern.
Prediction: Strong semifinalist, but history is against him.
2. Oneil Cruz (+350) – Pirates
- Key Stat: Hit the hardest ball ever tracked (122.9 MPH).
- Strengths: Incredible bat speed, raw power tailor-made for the Derby.
- Weakness: Low launch angle may turn homers into line drives.
Prediction: Champion pick — everything aligns for Cruz to dominate.
3. James Wood (+400) – Nationals
- HRs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
- Strengths: Elite Statcast metrics and Truist Park familiarity.
- Weakness: Low launch angle may cost a few deep balls to center.
Prediction: Semifinalist with championship potential.
4. Matt Olson (+800) – Braves
- Strengths: Home crowd support and previous Derby experience.
- Weakness: Slight decline in power; age might be a factor.
Prediction: First-round exit, but don’t count out the hometown bump.
5. Brent Rooker (+850) – Athletics
- Strengths: Pull power and motivation — hitting coach is tossing BP.
- Weakness: Lacks the elite exit velocity of top-tier sluggers.
Prediction: Possible early exit, but a sentimental favorite.
6. Byron Buxton (+900) – Twins
- Key Fact: Longest HR in the field at 479 feet.
- Strengths: Elite launch angle and raw power.
- Weakness: Age and injury history raise durability concerns.
Prediction: Tempting sleeper, but likely misses the cut.
7. Junior Caminero (+1000) – Rays
- Strengths: 21-year-old slugger with second-fastest bat speed in MLB.
- Weakness: Low launch angle could sabotage performance if off rhythm.
Prediction: Dark horse finalist. Could surprise the field.
8. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1400) – Yankees
- Strengths: Pull-happy swing and career-high home run pace.
- Weakness: Undersized compared to other mashers.
Prediction: Long shot, but value play for risk-takers.
Key Derby Trends & Insights
- No catcher has ever won the Derby.
- Cal Raleigh leads MLB in HRs (38).
- Oneil Cruz owns the hardest-hit HR in Statcast history (122.9 MPH).
- Byron Buxton holds the longest Derby HR this season (479 ft).
- Matt Olson is competing in front of his hometown fans.
- James Wood leads MLB with 11 centerfield home runs.
Final Predictions
- 🥇 Winner: Oneil Cruz (+350) — Elite power, elite speed, elite tools.
- 🥈 Runner-Up: Junior Caminero (+1000) — Perfect breakout opportunity.
- 💰 Value Pick: James Wood (+400) — All-around threat.
- 🎯 Long Shot: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1400) — Fun flier for big odds.
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know needs help, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.