Based on the research of Action Network Staff, who highlighted key points,
Scoring in the NBA has seen a significant increase this season, with teams averaging 110.9 points per game, the highest since the 1984-85 season. Factors such as heightened pace and efficiency have contributed to this surge. Teams are also averaging 100.1 possessions per 48 minutes, marking the 16th highest in NBA history. Furthermore, players are scoring at an unprecedented rate this season, with the league’s effective field goal percentage at .524 per Basketball-Reference.
During a recent episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, Joe House predicted that with the rise in scoring, bettors would have profited from wagering on overs this season. Delving into the Bet Labs database, it was found that overs do have a winning record this season at 50.7%. However, the win rate is not enough to offset the juice, with overs yielding a loss of $966 for a $100 bettor.
Although overs started strong, bookmakers adjusted quickly, resulting in overs aiming at only a 49.5% success rate since November. Despite the high-scoring environment, bookmakers have adapted by increasing over/unders. Thus, while wagering on every over may not be advisable, following line movement and seeking out instances where there’s more money than tickets on the over could be a profitable strategy. This approach has been effective since the 2015-16 season, particularly when sharps are also backing the over.
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