The NFL’s traditional Christmas Day tripleheader returns in Week 17 with three high-profile games featuring playoff-relevant matchups and holiday betting action. Today’s slate includes:
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders — early action
- Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings — late afternoon
- Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs — primetime nightcap
All three games will be available via streaming (Netflix and Prime Video), and each presents unique betting angles for spreads, totals, props, and same-game parlays.
🕐 1:00 PM ET — Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Betting Lean: Cowboys ATS | Over lean
Dallas’ offense can score quickly, while Washington enters today with Josh Johnson as the starting QB in place of injured Marcus Mariota. The Cowboys have one of the NFL’s top pass offenses despite a disappointing season, and the Commanders have struggled to stop opposing passing games all year.
Best Bets
- Cowboys – Spread: Dallas’ offensive firepower and Washington’s inconsistent QB play favor Dallas ATS.
- Over on Game Total: Both offenses showed recent scoring ability, and Washington’s defense has allowed above-average opponent point totals.
Top Player Prop Bets (Projected)
| Player | Prop | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) | Passing Yards OVER ~270.5 | Cowboys pass-friendly attack |
| CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) | Receiving Yards OVER ~80.5 | Target share in high-pace offense |
| George Pickens (WR, WAS) | Receiving Yards OVER ~58.5 | Commanders allow WR production vs zone |
SGP Idea
- Cowboys Moneyline
- Dak Prescott 270+ passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 80+ receiving yards
Rationale: This SGP stacks Dallas scoring with Washington’s defensive weaknesses, leveraging high-volume Cowboys passing.
🎄 Cowboys at Commanders — Expanded SGP Bet Ideas
Game Script Assumption
Dallas controls the game through the air, Washington plays from behind, pace increases in the second half.
SGP #1 — Balanced / Higher Hit Rate
- Cowboys Moneyline
- Dak Prescott 250+ passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 70+ receiving yards
Why this works
- Prescott’s yardage and Lamb’s volume are directly correlated
- Dallas passing success increases ML probability
- Alt lines reduce volatility while keeping correlation intact
SGP #2 — Aggressive / Ceiling Build
- Cowboys – Spread
- Dak Prescott 2+ passing TDs
- CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD
Why this works
- If Dallas covers, multiple passing TDs are likely
- Lamb dominates red-zone target share
- Strong positive correlation between QB TDs and WR TDs
SGP #3 — Volume & Pace Angle
- Over Game Total
- Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards
- George Pickens 50+ receiving yards
Why this works
- Game total over implies increased dropbacks on both sides
- Game total over implies increased dropbacks on both sides
- Pickens benefits from negative game script
- Works best if Washington trails early
🕟 4:30 PM ET — Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Betting Lean: Lions ATS | Under lean
The Lions are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive while the Vikings have shown resilience recently despite being underdogs. Detroit’s star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable but expected to play, which matters for Purdue’s passing usage and yardage volume.
Best Bets
- Lions – Spread: Detroit’s offense has been consistent and could control clock and tempo.
- Under on Game Total: Both defenses have shown ability to bend but not break; lower combined scoring can be in play.
Top Player Prop Bets (Projected)
| Player | Prop | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET) | Rushing Yards OVER ~60.5 | Lead back with workload |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) | Receiving Yards OVER ~72.5 | Volume upside if active |
| Jordan Addison (WR, MIN) | Receiving Yards OVER ~64.5 | Target share in Vikings’ offense |
SGP Idea
- Lions Moneyline
- Jahmyr Gibbs 60+ rushing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 70+ receiving yards
Rationale: This leverages Detroit’s ground control and pass game if St. Brown is active, giving multiple correlated scoring opportunities.
🎄 Lions at Vikings — Expanded SGP Bet Ideas
Game Script Assumption
Detroit plays from ahead, leans on Jahmyr Gibbs, while Minnesota relies on perimeter receivers.
SGP #1 — Clock-Control Build
- Lions Moneyline
- Jahmyr Gibbs 60+ rushing yards
- Under Game Total
Why this works
- Lions ML + Gibbs rushing implies run-heavy second half
- Sustained drives shorten the game
- Under aligns with Detroit controlling tempo
SGP #2 — Offensive Core Stack
- Lions Moneyline
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 70+ receiving yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs 20+ receiving yards
Why this works
- Detroit funnels usage through these two players
- Both benefit regardless of script
- High-percentage volume rather than TD reliance
SGP #3 — Vikings Come-From-Behind Angle
- Over Vikings Team Total
- Jordan Addison 60+ receiving yards
- Lions Moneyline
Why this works
- Minnesota scoring does not require a Vikings win
- Addison thrives when trailing
- Detroit can still win while allowing WR production
🕗 8:15 PM ET — Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Betting Lean: Broncos ATS | Over lean
Kansas City comes into Christmas with a depleted QB room after Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL earlier in December, and Denver is pushing to secure a top AFC seed. With Chris Oladokun likely to start again, this game could hinge on Denver’s offensive efficiency and defensive control.
Best Bets
- Broncos – Spread: Denver’s motivation and KC’s QB uncertainty favor a Broncos cover.
- Over on Game Total: Kansas City will continue to push the ball, and Denver’s pace supports scoring.
Top Player Prop Bets (Projected)
| Player | Prop | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix (QB, DEN) | Passing Yards OVER ~260.5 | High volume against transitional KC defense |
| Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC) | Rushing Yards OVER ~30.5 | Workhorse back in Chiefs’ ground game |
| Travis Kelce (TE, KC) | Receptions OVER ~60.5 | Premium target role regardless of QB |
SGP Idea
- Broncos Moneyline
- Bo Nix 260+ passing yards
- Travis Kelce 60+ receiving yards
Rationale: Bo Nix’s air-it-out role combined with Kelce’s target share gives this a balanced yardage and scoring mix.
🎄 Broncos at Chiefs — Expanded SGP Betting Ideas
Game Script Assumption
Denver pushes tempo offensively, Kansas City leans on short-area weapons with a conservative QB plan.
SGP #1 — Broncos Control Script
- Broncos Moneyline
- Bo Nix 250+ passing yards
- Isiah Pacheco 25+ rushing yards
Why this works
- Broncos win probability rises with Nix volume
- Chiefs still lean on Pacheco even when trailing
- Cross-team correlation without conflicting outcomes
SGP #2 — Chiefs Short-Game Offense
- Over Game Total
- Travis Kelce 60+ receiving yards
- Isiah Pacheco Over rushing yards
Why this works
- Chiefs offense condenses through Kelce + run game
- Short completions keep drives alive
- Works even if Kansas City doesn’t win
SGP #3 — Aggressive Alt-Line Stack
- Broncos – Spread
- Bo Nix 2+ passing TDs
- Travis Kelce 5+ receptions
Why this works
- Denver covering implies multiple scoring drives
- Kelce’s catch volume is QB-agnostic
- High upside without needing Chiefs efficiency
📊 Player Prop Value Charts — NFL Christmas Day Week 17
Cowboys vs. Commanders Props
| Player | Position | Prop | Model Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | OVER ~270.5 pass yds | Positive |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | OVER ~80.5 rec yds | Positive |
| George Pickens | WR (WAS) | OVER ~58.5 rec yds | Speculative |
Lions vs. Vikings Props
| Player | Position | Prop | Model Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | OVER ~60.5 rush yds | Positive |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | OVER ~72.5 rec yds | Conditional (Questionable) |
| Jordan Addison | WR (MIN) | OVER ~64.5 rec yds | Positive |
Broncos vs. Chiefs Props
| Player | Position | Prop | Model Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | QB | OVER ~260.5 pass yds | Positive |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OVER ~30.5 rush yds | Positive |
| Travis Kelce | TE | OVER ~60.5 rec yds | High-volume role |
🎅 Christmas Day Betting Strategy Takeaways
- Cowboys favorite tools: Dallas passing props and over-total lean against an unstable Commanders pass defense.
- Lions yardage demand: Detroit’s skill weapons offer strong role volume — if Amon-Ra St. Brown plays, his prop becomes a focal point.
- Broncos primetime surge: Denver is motivated for seeding, while the Chiefs’ transitional QB room boosts underdog value
