Sunday, December 28, 2025 — Full Slate Breakdown
Week 17’s Sunday slate features critical games with playoff implications and meaningful betting markets. From division races to draft positioning, today’s matchups offer value across spreads, totals, and player props. Below is your complete betting guide — roster verified and written for sportsbook content hubs and Google Discover-friendly format
🕐 1:00 PM ET — New England Patriots at New York Jets
Betting Lean: Patriots ATS | Under lean
The Patriots travel to MetLife to take on the Jets in a matchup with division implications. New England is a heavy favorite (around -13.5 points) with a relatively low total (~42.5), setting up both spread and under considerations.
📊 Odds Snapshot
- Spread: Patriots ~-13.5
- Moneyline: Patriots heavy favorites | Jets big underdogs
- Total: ~42.5 (O/U)
Best Bets
- Patriots – Spread: New England’s consistent offense and playoff stakes make them a strong ATS play even at a large line.
- Under Game Total: With both defenses capable of response and a larger spread, the under leans toward control football.
Top Player Props
- Drake Maye (QB, Patriots) — Over ~255.5 Passing Yards
Maye has delivered big yardage performances this season and faces a Jets defense susceptible to deep passing. - Stefon Diggs (WR, Patriots) — Over ~56.5 Receiving Yards
Diggs leads New England’s receiving corps and projects as a high-volume target, particularly in catch-heavy situations early in games. - Hunter Henry (TE, Patriots) — Anytime Touchdown (+190 range)
Henry’s role as a red-zone target gives him upside scoring potential against a Jets defense that has struggled with tight ends.
SGP Idea — Patriots vs. Jets
Patriots ATS + Maye Over 255.5 Passing Yards + Diggs Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Why this works: The model projects New England to control from start to finish, driving volume through Maye and high-usage weapons like Diggs.
Patriots vs. Jets: New England’s offensive arsenal and division positioning add reliability to yardage overs and spread coverage.
🕐 1:00 PM ET — Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Betting Lean: Steelers ATS | Over lean
The Steelers visit the Browns in an AFC North showdown with playoff positioning still in play. Pittsburgh is favored by ~3.5 points on most books, and the total hangs around 34.5 points, reflecting expectations for a physical, low-tempo battle.
📊 Odds Snapshot
- Spread: Steelers ~-3.5 | Browns +3.5
- Moneyline: Steelers favored (around -185) | Browns (~+155)
- Total: ~34.5 (Over/Under)
Best Bets
- Steelers – Spread: Pittsburgh has covered multiple divisional games this season and enters this contest with strong ATS trends in conference play.
- Under Total: A sub-35 total suits a matchup where defenses control field position and limit big offensive plays.
Top Player Props
- Aaron Rodgers (QB, Steelers) — Under ~30.5 Pass Attempts
Rodgers’ volume projection is limited against the Browns’ top-ranked pass defense, and game planning may feature shorter drives. - Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, Browns) — Over ~49.5 Receiving Yards
With Browns TEs shuffled by injury, Fannin has emerged as a focal point in the passing game and presents a top receiving prop target.
SGP Idea — Steelers vs. Browns
Steelers ATS + Rodgers Under 30.5 Pass Attempts + Fannin Jr. Over Receiving Yards
Why this works: Pittsburgh’s offensive script limits big aerial volume, while Cleveland will feed its most consistent target in Fannin Jr.
Steelers vs. Browns: Defenses set the tone; low total and methodical pacing favor conservative yardage props.
🕐 1:00 PM ET — Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Betting Lean: Jaguars ATS | Over lean
Jacksonville stays in playoff contention with Trevor Lawrence at the helm against a Colts squad that continues to struggle defensively. Lawrence’s recent efficiency and Jacksonville’s balanced offense yield favorable matchup leans.
Best Bets
- Jaguars – Spread: Lawrence’s high completion rate and explosive play ability work well against weak secondaries.
- Over on Team Total (JAX): Jacksonville projects more offensive opportunities vs. Indy.
Top Player Props
- Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars) — Passing Yards Over 225.5
Lawrence’s volume and downfield aggressiveness support this line. - Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Jaguars) — Anytime TD (+175–+290)
Usage near goal line and red zone gives him upside.
SGP Idea
- Jaguars Moneyline
- Trevor Lawrence 230+ Passing Yards
- Etienne Jr. Anytime TD
🕐 1:00 PM ET — Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins
Betting Lean: Buccaneers ATS | Under lean
Tampa Bay enters as a bolster for the road chalk against Miami, where the Dolphins have struggled recently. The defense-first tendencies of both teams suggest stronger lean to the under.
Best Bets
- Buccaneers – Spread: TB’s edge in QB play and situational efficiency makes laying the points appealing.
- Under Game Total: Both defenses have shown they can clamp down in late-season matchups.
Top Player Props
- Baker Mayfield (QB, Buccaneers) — Passing Yards Over 242.5
Mayfield’s volume advantage in intermediate passing paths supports the over. - De’Von Achane (RB, Dolphins) — Rushing + Receiving Yards Over 62.5
Expected role in positive game script provides multi-dimensional yardage upside.
SGP Idea
- Buccaneers – Spread
- Baker Mayfield 240+ Passing Yards
- Under Game Total
🕐 1:00 PM ET — Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Betting Lean: Seahawks ATS | Over lean
Seattle travels to Charlotte as strong favorites — typically around -7.5 on the spread and about -360 on the moneyline — with the total set near 42.5 points. Carolina (8-7) leads the NFC South and can still clinch a playoff berth with a win and help, giving them plenty of incentive.
Seattle’s balanced offense and top-tier defense (second in scoring defense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA) make them a solid ATS pick, while Carolina’s success this year has often come in tight, controlled games.
Best Bets
Seahawks – Spread (-7.5)
Seattle’s efficiency on both sides of the ball and motivation to solidify a high seed gives them an edge in this spot. Covers.com
Lean Under Total (42.5)
Carolina’s late-season wins have come via close, low-tempo scripts, and Seattle’s defense can clamp down to suppress scoring.
Top Player Props
- Sam Darnold (QB, Seahawks) — Passing Yards Under 268.5
High volume attack potential - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Seahawks) — Receptions Over 5.5
Target consistency near short and intermediate routes enhances reception volume.
SGP Idea
- Seahawks Moneyline
- Sam Darnold Over Passing Yards
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over Receptions
🕐 1:00 PM ET — New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Betting Lean: Saints ATS | Over lean
New Orleans shows life under emerging offense with frequent short passing and efficient rushing when available. Tennessee’s defense can keep this closer than expected, but New Orleans has positive situational leans.
Best Bets
- Saints – Spread: Balanced offense creates manageable scripts.
- Under Game Total: Defensive efficiency on both fronts encourages lower totals.
Top Player Props
- Tyjae Spears (RB, Titans) — Rushing Yards Over 64.5
Spears’ role as lead back gives steady yardage opportunities. - Chris Olave (WR, Saints) — Receiving Yards Over 69.5
Olave remains the primary threat in vertical passing — a rich source of yardage.
SGP Idea
- Saints – Spread
- Chris Olave 70+ Receiving Yards
- Under Game Total
🕓 4:05 PM ET — New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders
Betting Lean: UNDER | Raiders ATS (narrow)
Both the Giants (2-13) and Raiders (2-13) enter Week 17 locked in a de-facto “Tank Bowl” for draft position — a rare matchup where neither side has a true competitive incentive. This has major implications for pace and scoring: expect a game with sloppy execution, conservative play-calling, and limited explosive plays. Both teams are effectively playing for draft position, not seeding, and that script typically leads to low totals and defensive nights.
Consensus Odds (from major books)
- Spread: Giants ~-1.5 | Raiders +1.5
- Total: 41.5 points (Over/Under)
- Moneyline: Giants favored (~-145) | Raiders ~+120
With injuries on both sides and key defenders missing, neither offense projects much rhythm — especially with rookie QBs and unstable offensive line situations.
Best Bets & Prediction
🟦Under Game Total (41.5)
This is the cleanest angle. Both offenses have struggled with consistency all season, and the “Tank Bowl” context removes competitive urgency, making an under lean the primary strategic play for Week 17 Sunday.
Raiders ATS (small lean)
Despite both offenses being inefficient, Las Vegas carries a small home-field edge with defensive pieces and a historically better ATS profile. A close game in the dome is more likely to finish with the Raiders covering than a giant blowout.
Projected Score: Raiders 17 — Giants 14 (UNDER) — model and public trends favor low scoring.
Player Prop Ideas
- Jaxson Dart (QB, Giants) — Rushing Yards OVER 31.5 (-108)
Dart’s mobility gives him a chance to exceed this lower rushing threshold. - Ashton Jeanty (RB, Raiders) — Anytime TD (+370)
Jeanty has multiple red-zone opportunities and stands as the Raiders’ top scoring threat, even in sloppy scripts. - Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, Giants) — Rushing Yards OVER 58.5
Tracy Jr. has shown ground-game volume and could exceed this with run-heavy scripts if the passing game stalls.
Giants – Raiders Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
SGP — Low-Total + Modest Yardage Slate
- Under 41.5 Total
- Jaxson Dart Under 182.5 Passing Yards
- Ashton Jeanty Anytime Touchdown (+370)
Why this works:
- Under total aligns with sloppy offensive execution and tanking scripts.
- Dart remains limited in passing volume with his developmental offense.
- Jeanty stands alone as the most consistent Raiders scoring threat, even in low-scoring contexts.
This ticket combines game script + player usage + scoring scarcity in a way that’s highly correlated for this matchup.
Context & “Tank Bowl” Reality
This game isn’t being played with typical competitive urgency — both teams are 2-13, and either loss benefits draft position. The absence of urgency usually drives:
- Conservative play-calling
- Short drives and fewer explosive plays
- Scripted rushing and short passes
- Increased likelihood of turnovers and mistakes
All of these help explain why the UNDER is being bet aggressively, even as some models still show slight variance edges on the point spread.
🕓 4:25 PM ET — Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
Betting Lean: Bills ATS | Over lean
Buffalo’s offense has hit its stride late in the season, and they face an Eagles unit with some defensive vulnerabilities. Allen’s connecting chemistry with his top options gives Bills the edge.
Best Bets
- Bills – Spread: Buffalo’s uptick in offensive scoring efficiency keys the lean.
- Over Game Total: Both teams can produce explosive scoring plays.
Top Player Props
- Josh Allen (QB, Bills) — Passing Yards Over 276.5
Allen’s late-season form supports volume passing. - A.J. Brown (WR, Eagles) — Receiving Yards Over 82.5
Brown remains a focal point of the Eagles’ receiving attack.
SGP Idea
- Bills Moneyline
- Josh Allen 275+ Passing Yards
- A.J. Brown 80+ Receiving Yards
🕗 8:20 PM ET — Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (SNF)
Betting Lean: 49ers ATS | Over lean
San Francisco finishes the Sunday slate with a division advantage and superior offensive balance vs Chicago’s inconsistent attack. Lean to the 49ers controlling tempo and scoring early.
Best Bets
- 49ers – Spread: Efficient scoring and defensive pressure give them the edge.
- Over Game Total: Multiple scoring opportunities projected.
Top Player Props
- Brock Purdy (QB, 49ers) — Passing TDs Over 1.5
Red zone efficiency and high touchdown activity make this an appealing prop. - Christian McCaffrey (RB, 49ers) — Receiving Yards Over 30.5
McCaffrey remains a central piece of the 49ers’ offense and sees frequent targets out of the backfield, making him a strong receiving prop candidate in the passing game.
SGP Idea
- 49ers Moneyline
- Brock Purdy 2+ Passing TDs
- Christian McCaffrey 30.5+ Receiving Yards
All betting odds and predictions are for informational and entertainment purposes only. This content does not constitute betting advice from BetHouse.com
