Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4: Preview, Predictions, and Betting Analysis

After taking the first two games of the ALCS, the New York Yankees stumbled in Game 3 as the Cleveland Guardians fought back with a thrilling extra-inning victory. With the series now standing at 2-1, Cleveland has the opportunity to level the series in Game 4 at home.

The first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. EST at Progressive Field. Luis Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) will start for the Yankees, while Cleveland sends Gavin Williams (3-10, 4.86 ERA) to the mound. This matchup is critical, with both teams facing immense pressure as they head deeper into the postseason.

The Yankees are looking to regain momentum after the emotional Game 3 loss, where home runs in extra innings ultimately sealed their fate. New York’s powerful lineup will be tested once again, but they have proven to be resilient this postseason, scoring first in six of their seven playoff games. Given that Williams struggled against New York during his one regular-season outing, allowing three runs in just over four innings, there’s optimism for the Yankees to strike early.

For those looking at betting angles, there are some notable odds in favor of the Yankees. The team is currently listed at +130 on Fanatics to score first and win. With a potent lineup and Gil on the mound, New York is expected to surpass 3.5 runs scored, with odds of -140 on BetMGM. Moreover, DraftKings has Williams as the favorite to allow the first earned run at -125.

The Guardians, however, are not to be underestimated. They’ve shown resilience, particularly with their bullpen. While Cleveland has leaned heavily on its relievers throughout the postseason, there is concern that the extended use could catch up with them. Should the Yankees strike early, it may force Cleveland to rely more on their bullpen, potentially leading to fatigue as the series progresses.

On the flip side, Cleveland has its advantages as well. With their Game 3 comeback win in front of a home crowd, the Guardians carry serious momentum into Game 4. If they manage to win on Friday, it would completely shift the series in their favor as they prepare for the final three games. Though Williams’ pitching has been inconsistent, the Guardians have shown they can capitalize on opportunities, especially when backed into a corner.

Betting Analysis:

  • Yankees as the favorite: The Yankees are favored on the moneyline at -120 on FanDuel, making them a strong bet to regain control of the series. If they can get off to a fast start, as they have throughout much of the playoffs, their deep lineup should be able to expose any weakness in Cleveland’s pitching staff.
  • Guardians as the underdog: On BetMGM, the Guardians are listed at +105 on the moneyline. For Cleveland to win, they’ll need to take advantage of Gil’s potential rust after 20 days of rest and keep the Yankees’ offense at bay. With home-field advantage and newfound confidence after Game 3, Cleveland could pull off another upset if they maintain their defensive and offensive form.

Yankees vs. Guardians: Best Bets

  • Team to score first and win – Yankees: +130 on Fanatics
  • Yankees over 3.5 runs scored: -140 on BetMGM
  • First earned run allowed – Gavin Williams: -125 on DraftKings

Why New York Could Win: New York is favored for several reasons, chief among them being their depth at the plate and their ability to score early. Despite losing the previous game, their offensive output has been consistent. While Cleveland has relied on its bullpen, the Yankees’ lineup has the firepower to break through, particularly if Williams struggles in the early innings.

Why Cleveland Could Win: The Guardians are riding the high of a dramatic Game 3 win, showing their resilience in the face of adversity. Despite question marks surrounding their starting pitching, Cleveland’s ability to bounce back and use their bullpen effectively could give them the edge. If they continue to capitalize on New York’s mistakes and exploit Gil’s inexperience, they may force a Game 5 with the series tied.

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