Based on the research of Action Network Staff, who highlighted key points,
In NCAA Basketball, public bettors have a tendency to wager on teams that have been covering the spread and avoid those that haven’t. A study by Bet Labs revealed that since 2005, teams that have covered at least three of their past five games have received a majority of spread tickets in 65.9% of regular season games when facing an opponent that hasn’t covered as much. Oddsmakers are aware of these trends and adjust their lines to entice bettors into taking less favorable odds.
However, during postseason play, particularly in conference tournaments, this trend shifts. Teams with strong recent against-the-spread (ATS) form receive the majority of bets in only 52.2% of games. This is due to the public favoring underdogs in postseason play, assuming games will be more competitive as teams fight to extend their seasons. Consequently, oddsmakers adjust by offering less inflated lines for teams that have been covering when facing opponents that have not.
Since 2005, teams with good recent ATS form have shown a 56.7% success rate when facing opponents with poor recent ATS form. This strategy has proven profitable, with a $100 bettor following this trend seeing a return of $5,358. The system has continued its success in the 2018-19 conference tournament, going 2-0 ATS. Two more matchups are on Thursday: Saint Peter’s (+2.5) vs. Marist (5 p.m. ET, ESPN3) and Indiana State (-3) vs. Valparaiso (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+). This article, originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by John Ewing, highlights the value of following recent ATS trends when betting on conference tournaments.