Drawing from the analysis of Action Network Staff, who provided valuable context,
After a week off during the All-Star break, NBA players often suffer from a “vacation hangover,” resulting in less defensive intensity and potentially higher scoring games. Last season, NBA games averaged 212.6 points, but in the two days immediately following the break, scoring spiked to an average of 224.1 points. Consequently, overs went 10-6-1 in those matches, indicating a trend worth exploring for bettors.
Analyzing game data since 2005, a study found that in a team’s first game back post-All-Star break, the over has hit 55.1% of the time. However, blindly betting on every over may not be the most optimal strategy. When two teams with losing records meet within the first two days after the break, the over has a remarkable 67.6% success rate (50-24-1) over the years.
For those looking to capitalize on this trend, matchups to watch include Cavaliers vs. Suns on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET, and Hornets vs. Wizards, Magic vs. Bulls, Hawks vs. Pistons, and Knicks vs. Timberwolves on Friday night. The idea is that bad teams with nothing to play for could contribute to increased scoring and favor the over.
This NBA betting tip originally appeared on ActionNetwork.com and was authored by John Ewing, in collaboration with Sports Insights at The Action Network.
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